Election Watch 2026: A Few Thoughts

by Justin Soutar

I’ve been following American politics and elections for thirty years at this point, and writing about them for twenty-two years. As we approach the “midterm” Congressional and gubernatorial elections, which are already well underway with early, mail-in, and absentee voting, I’m uncertain as to what the overall election outcome will be. The main reason for this uncertainty is the complexity of the political situation in the United States at this time, with its many variable factors, and the distinct advantages that both Republican and Democratic candidates possess. Let's take a look at some of these factors and advantages pertaining to the Congressional elections.

On the one hand, “midterm” election history and the 2026 Senate map seem to clearly favor Democrats. It’s routine for the sitting president’s party to lose seats in both houses of Congress halfway through his term. This is partly due to typically lower voter turnout in between presidential elections, as many voters consider “midterm” elections less important, and partly due to some disappointment with the president’s job performance in certain areas. Twenty-two Republican senators are up for re-election compared with only thirteen Democratic senators. The radical, elitist, angry, corrupt, and power-hungry Democratic politicians of today know that only seven seats stand between them and full control of Congress. They are relentlessly focused and determined to reclaim power at all costs in order to halt and fully reverse the populist MAGA agenda that has been implemented with considerable success by President Trump and Congressional Republicans during these past two years. They are liberally bankrolled by Big Abortion, Big Pharma, George Soros, and the Chinese Communist Party. They have former President (Comrade) Obama campaigning for them. They have the influential Big Media and Big Tech advertising and propaganda machine on their side. They present themselves as allies of the people, even as moderates. They are masters of lying, buying, and stealing their way to victory, then dismissing legitimate claims of election fraud as "attempts to overturn the election". Their goal is to fundamentally transform America from a free Christian republic into a Communist radically secularist dictatorship (although it is not presented in those terms, because if it was, they would have no chance whatsoever).

Meanwhile, Republican In Name Only Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stubbornly refused to bring the SAVE America Act up for a floor vote, which if passed and signed into law would require voter ID and proof of citizenship to vote in all fifty states, thus greatly reducing the possibilities of illegal alien votes affecting election outcomes. The continuing affordability issue is a major problem for Congressional Republicans, who campaigned two years ago on promises to significantly lower the cost of living. Add to this President Trump’s unjustified decision to invade Iran--ostensibly to prevent that country from developing and using nuclear weapons but secretly on behalf of Israeli radical Zionists and war profiteers--resulting in abnormally high gasoline prices throughout the country, and his unfair criticisms of Pope Leo XIV for refusing to support the war. The President’s unnecessary invasion of Iran and verbal attacks on the pope alienated millions of isolationist and Catholic Republicans and will go down as two of the biggest political mistakes of his second term. Furthermore, Republicans have failed to take advantage of their House and Senate majorities to permanently defund Planned Parenthood and outlaw the abortion pill; to fully repeal and replace ObamaCare with an affordable patient-centered healthcare system; or to substantially reduce the enormous national debt. And finally, blinded by their unqualified pro-Israel ideology, Republicans have done little to assist the ever-shrinking Holy Land Christian community and nothing to defend Palestinian human rights and nationhood from the genocidal radical Zionist assault, foolishly abandoning the latter cause to Democratic socialists and campus Communists just when American public opinion has decisively shifted in favor of the Palestinians.

On the other hand, many American voters are aware and appreciative of the significant constructive accomplishments President Trump, his administration, and Congressional Republicans have delivered for their country within the past two years. For example, they have made America a safer place to live by securing our borders and coastlines, which has reduced the influx of illegal aliens and drugs to zero; by arresting thousands of dangerous foreign gang members (drug and human traffickers); and by deporting or encouraging the self-deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants, all of which have contributed to an historic record drop in violent crime. They have replaced destructive Critical Race Theory, gender ideology, and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion hiring practices and policies in the federal government and national sports with color-blind, merit-based, and male-female ones. They have exposed massive hidden waste, fraud, and abuse in federal and state bureaucracies to daylight (including widespread SNAP fraud) and cut the bloated federal government down to size. They have delivered the largest tax cut for working individuals and families in American history, allowing people to keep more of what they earn. They have enacted tariffs on imports to protect American businesses, reversing much of the harm caused by the misguided North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) since the 1990s, spurring a domestic production boom and sending the stock market into the stratosphere. They have dramatically cut prescription drug costs, banned unhealthy synthetic dyes from domestic foods, and officially acknowledged the link between childhood vaccines and the growing autism epidemic. They have consistently supported freedom to act in accord with natural law, religious liberty, and freedom of speech. They have restored a healthy pride in America’s history and achievements before and during our nation’s semiquincentennial, with President Trump’s frequent written statements for various occasions on the White House website being examples of authentic patriotism. And last year, as happened several times during his first term, President Trump was again nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for his leading role in the diplomatic resolution of major conflicts in the Middle East, South Asia, and elsewhere around the world.

In addition to their fairly impressive MAGA record, Republican incumbents and candidates have some major advantages over their Democratic counterparts. For example, the political watchdog organization Judicial Watch has forced major voter roll cleanups in many states, including several key battlegrounds, within the past fifteen years, greatly reducing the possibilities for voter fraud and dirty elections. The inaugural Midterm Republican National Convention in Dallas last September significantly energized the MAGA movement. President Trump has been campaigning hard for Republican candidates across the country, and his endorsements and speeches still carry a lot of weight among likely Republican and independent voters (and even among some Democratic voters). American voters don’t trust Big Media (aka “Fake News”) the way they did fifteen or twenty years ago. Political advocacy groups such as Turning Point Action and the Faith and Freedom Coalition fully realize the urgency of keeping both chambers of Congress in Republican hands and are conducting massive get-out-the-vote operations in battleground states. Not to be outdone by George Soros’ $102 million donation to Democratic candidates across the country, Elon Musk has contributed a whopping $276 million to Republican candidates nationwide. This massive and unprecedented influx of cash to Republican campaigns will be a decisive factor in the election outcome.

Finally, in the past few years, we’ve seen the development of a remarkable phenomenon that no one would have thought possible just ten years ago: cracks in the Democratic Party monolith. House and Senate Democrats used to vote predictably and consistently as a team on the great majority of bills. Looking at bills that have recently passed Congress, we see a minority of Democrats frequently breaking with their colleagues and voting with the Republicans. In the Senate, for instance, John Fetterman is courageously voting with Republicans on quite a number of bills. The rise of divisions within the Democratic Party is one of the most significant results of President Trump’s dedication to acting in the best interests of the country, and it is a tribute to his steadfast refusal to compromise on matters of principle. It equally represents a backlash against the crazed extremism of today’s Democratic Party elites. The consequences of this small but persistent trend will extend far beyond this election year and are not hard to predict. It signals the beginning of the end of Democratic Communism and the eventual return of bipartisanship to Washington. Increasing numbers of Democratic senators and representatives will defect to the MAGA movement as their own party’s platform continues to veer sharply into insane and evil territory. And as moderate Democrats grow in number, they will eventually reclaim leadership of their party from the currently dominant extremists.

There is a range of possible scenarios for the election results next week, including but not limited to the following:

1) Democrats may win majority control of both the House and the Senate by substantial margins.

2) Democrats may win majority control of both the House and the Senate by narrow margins.

3) Democrats may win majority control of the House by a narrow margin and 50 seats in the Senate, leaving the latter chamber tied with Republicans (and Vice President J. D. Vance to cast tie-breaking votes, so effectively still a Republican Senate majority).

4) Democrats may win majority control of the House by a narrow margin, but Republicans may retain majority control of the Senate by a narrow margin.

5) Republicans may retain majority control of the House by a narrow margin, but Democrats may win majority control of the Senate by a narrow margin.

6) Republicans may retain majority control of both the House and the Senate by narrow margins.

7) Republicans may win majority control of both the House and the Senate by substantial margins.

What will happen? I don’t know. It seems that the combined weight of all factors and advantages considered above favors the Republicans, and I hope and pray that they will be victorious. However, our nation remains perilously divided into two camps, not just on issues and policies, but on visions of what our nation is and what it should be. Republican leaders stand for a free Christian republic. Democratic leaders stand for a Communist radically secularist dictatorship. Both have tens of millions of followers. The choice between freedom and tyranny has not been starker in any previous election. The outcome will certainly reflect our nation’s profound divisions and woundedness. Many of the races will almost certainly be close and bitterly contested for days and weeks afterward. We all can and should do our part to save our country from her Communist enemies within by voting for Republican candidates in this election if we haven’t already done so. As we await the results with some trepidation, we would do well to remember, as Benjamin Franklin wisely said, that God governs in human affairs. Let us renew our trust in Him regarding the outcome, and pray for Him to forgive our sins and to reunite and heal our land.


Copyright © 2026 Justin D. Soutar.